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2026 Iranian Supreme Leader election

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An election for the third supreme leader of Iran was held in early March 2026, following the assassination of Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 during the 2026 Iran war. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, was announced by the Assembly of Experts as the new Supreme Leader on 8 March.[1]

Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader following an absence in the position, via a council that examines possible candidates in secrecy while advising the current leader.[2][3] Its sixth and current session began after it was elected in 2024 and is scheduled to sit until 2032. Potential candidates to succeed Khamenei included his son (and eventual successor) Mojtaba, his aides Asghar Hijazi, Ali Larijani, Sadiq Larijani, Alireza Arafi, Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri, and Mohsen Araki, as well as Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder Ruhollah Khomeini. Former president Ebrahim Raisi was often mentioned in the frontrunners for the position prior to his death in a helicopter crash in May 2024.[4][5][6][7][8]

Before Khamenei's death, no one had been officially declared to be his designated successor, nor had anyone been proposed as a potential nominee, although various news outlets such as Reuters and BBC News have reported on potential candidates.[9][10] In 2014, it was reported that the succession of Khamenei is deemed to have been decided but not disclosed publicly.[9][11] Prior to his death, Khamenei had not discussed his replacement.[12][13]

On 3 March, Iranian media reported that the Assembly of Experts' office in Qom had been bombed, reportedly during a session convened for electoral purposes.[14]

Background

Plans

In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani stated that a committee within the Assembly of Experts was "examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader" and indicated that the Assembly could consider choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[9] During his presidency, Hassan Rouhani was occasionally mentioned by some as a potential successor.[11] In 2016, Ahmad Khatami told the press that a committee of three Assembly members had submitted three names to the Supreme Leader "to seek his verdict", but later clarified that his comments were "hypothetical" and attributed any misreporting to the media.[15]

In June 2019, Mohsen Araki said that the committee had drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" which would be presented to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[15] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed the existance of such a committee, noting that the names on the list would remain confidential and that the committee's decisions were not final, as the next leader must be elected by a majority of Assembly members.[15] Earlier, in February 2019, Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari dismissed allegations that Ebrahim Raisi and Ahmad Khatami were considered candidates, stating that the issue "had never been debated at the Assembly."[16]

As of 2023, the Assembly of Experts was reported to be discussing a potential program to reestablish the post of Vice Supreme Leader, last held by Hussein-Ali Montazeri from 1985 to 1989.[17] In November 2024, government leaker Abbas Palizdar said that Mojtaba Khamenei had left the seminary to succeed his father.[18] According to Al Arabiya, the Assembly had reportedly nominated three individuals to replace Khamenei.[19] On 16 November 2024, Israeli news website Ynet reported that Khamenei had elected his son Mojtaba,[20] a claim later denied by the pro-government Tehran Times in January 2025.[21] One Assembly member stated that a successor had already been chosen but declined to reveal his identity for safety reasons.[22]

Shortly before the Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel in 2025, Khamenei requested the Assembly prepare for the selection of his successor.[23] Following United States strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during the war, The New York Times reported that Khamenei had nominated three senior clerics in case of his assassination.[24]

During the 2026 Israeli-United States airstrikes that started on 28 February 2026, the New York Times identified these clerics as Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, Asghar Hijazi, and Hassan Khomeini.[25] Reuters stated that Khamenei supported either Eje'i or Khomeini.[26] Iran International stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pressured the Assembly of Experts to elect Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader,[27][28] leading to an online Assembly of Experts meeting on 3 March.[29]

Pre-election analysis

In 2023, Israeli military intelligence assessed that President Ebrahim Raisi could succeed Khamenei.[30] John Bolton argued that the regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death.[31] In the aftermath of Raisi's death, Mojtaba Khamenei's status as a potential successor to his father became more plausible, although Ali Khamenei had reportedly opposed this.[32][33][34][35] The Middle East Institute suggested that appointing his own son as successor could cause conflict within Iran's political and religious leadership.[36]

Following the 2024 election, 92-year-old Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani became the new chairman of the Assembly of Experts.[37][38] Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini is also considered a possible successor, however, Iran International asserted he is unlikely due to his "exclusion from the regime's upper echelon" and that he was "sidelined after being barred from running for the Assembly of Experts" in 2016.[39]

2026 crisis and assassination of Ali Khamenei

In an interview with Politico discussing the 2025–2026 Iranian protests, US president Donald Trump called Ali Khamenei a "sick man" and called for new leadership in Iran. The Iranian government then threatened to declare an Islamic jihad against the Western world in the event of his death.[40][41][42][43] Ali Larijani surpassed Ali Khamenei as designated sitting secretary of SNSC to be acting supreme leader because of the highly likely event of decapitation strikes.[44]

On 28 February 2026, Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a series of airstrikes conducted by Israel and the United States; his death was confirmed by the Iranian Supreme National Security Council and by state media the following day.[45][46][47] After Khamenei's death, a leadership crisis began, with multiple potential candidates being named.[48] Prior to his death, Khamenei had not discussed his replacement and had said the selection must be made without shame or regard for expediency, rather based on the three principles of "truth, the need of the country and God".[12][13]

Trump has claimed that "the attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates. It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."[49][50] On 4 March, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Khamenei's successor, no matter his identity, would be considered a legitimate target for assassination.[51]

Interim Leadership Council

After the Assassination of Ali Khamenei, following Article 111 of the Islamic Republic constitution,[52] an Interim Leadership Council took over Khamenei's role, pending election of a new Supreme Leader. The Interim Leadership Council, as established early on 1 March 2026, then consisted of Alireza Arafi of the Guardian Council, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and President Masoud Pezeshkian.[53][54] Later that day, however, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi described a "group of three" by office, not including the Speaker of the Parliament. Furthermore, he assumed that the process would take "one or two days".[55]

It was reported by the BBC that Alireza Arafi was nominated as Interim Supreme Leader on 28 February before any successor was elected.[56] Ghalibaf and Larijani remained putative contenders, however,[57] not least because they (amongst others),[58] have long been seen as more or less likely prospects from the upper echelons of the Islamic Republic[59] by academics and analysts.[60][61][62]

Electoral system

The Supreme Leader of Iran is selected by members of the Assembly of Experts to serve a conditional life tenure. The tenure of the leader is conditional upon him continuing to have the qualifications referred to in Articles 5 and 109 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran; where according to Article 111 losing any of said conditions are grounds for dismissal by the Assembly of Experts. According to the same article of the constitution, if the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should as soon as possible hold a session and appoint a successor. The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member body of directly elected Mujtahids, with each of the 31 provinces being treated as a single constituency. The candidates for each province's allocated seat(s) must first be vetted by the Guardian Council, whose members are, in turn, appointed either directly or indirectly by the Supreme Leader.

According to Article 111 of the constitution, during times when the position of supreme leadership is vacant, a provisional Leadership Council is convened. This council consists of the President, the Chief Justice, and one of the six clerics of the Guardian Council who is picked by the Expediency Discernment Council. The council is mandated to carry out the interim duties of the supreme leader until a permanent successor is selected.[52]

Considered candidates

List

Security threat

On 8 March, the Israel Defense Forces posted a statement on X/Twitter in Persian, referring to the assassination of Ali Khamenei and stating that the "hand of the State of Israel [would] continue to pursue every successor and every person who seeks to appoint a successor. We warn all those who intend to participate in the successor selection meeting that we will not hesitate to target you either."[70][71]

Election

On 28 February, the IRGC tried to appoint a new Supreme Leader quickly, skipping the formal election process involving the Assembly of Experts.[72]

Online election meeting

By 3 March 2026, several media sources stated that Mojtaba Khamenei was a frontrunner to be Supreme Leader, with a formal announcement pending due to the ongoing war with Israel and the United States. Other candidates, including Arafi and Hassan Khomeini, remained under consideration.[28][73][74]

According to Iran International, starting early on 3 March, IRGC commanders pressured Assembly of Experts members to vote for Mojtaba Khamenei, with "repeated contacts and psychological and political pressure". A first electoral session was held online on 3 March. Assembly leaders stated that the election had to be held quickly because of the war. Members described the atmosphere of the online meeting as "unnatural". Those who presented arguments against Mojtaba Khamenei were given "limited time" to speak, discussion was cut off, and a vote was held.[29] US and Israeli bombs hit the Assembly of Experts office in the city of Qom[14] after the votes had been cast, and before the count had been completed.[29] Zed TV, a Telegram channel, claimed that the bombing specifically targeted the meeting.[14]

Followup procedures

After the result of the 3 March session was announced to Assembly members, objections were raised against the procedure, and the Assembly leaders announced that a second electoral session would be held on 5 March, to be "managed from a location near the shrine of Fatima Masumeh in Qom", aiming at reducing the chance of an airstrike because of the shrine's religious significance. IRGC commanders continued pressuring Assembly members. Eight members stated that they would boycott the second session, planned for 5 March, because of the "heavy pressure" by the IRGC in favour of Mojtaba Khamenei.[29]

On 5 March, when an announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei's election was expected by several sources, despite strong opposition from some Assembly members.[29] Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative commentator, said that appointing a leader at the time could be divisive and should be avoided while the war was ongoing.[75]

On 6 March, parliament member Mohsen Zanganeh stated that two candidates remained in the running, that both were "reluctant to accept the position", and that the new Supreme leader would be "introduced" by 8 March.[76] On the same day, journalist Behrouz Turani, writing in Iran International, stated that in response to the Assembly of Experts' difficulties in making a decision, the Expediency Discernment Council had "moved to suspend the Assembly of Experts ... and shift authority" to the Interim Leadership Council. Turani suggested that Ali Larijani had pushed for his brother Sadiq Larijani, head of the Expediency Discernment Council, to become Supreme Leader.[77]

On 8 March, Assembly of Experts members Ahmad Alamulhuda, Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri, and Mohsen Heidari Alekasir all stated that a choice of successor had effectively already been made, but differed in their views about the certainty of the procedure. Alamolhoda said that any change to the decision was constitutionally forbidden, and that the delay was in waiting for Hashem Hosseini Bushehri to formally make the announcement. Mirbagheri said that "some obstacles regarding the process [still needed] to be resolved". Alekasir said that security risks were preventing an in-person meeting for the formal decision.[78][79]

Announcement

On 8 March, the Assembly of Experts officially announced Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader.[80]

Reactions

On 5 March, US president Donald Trump said that the expected election of Mojtaba Khamenei was "unacceptable",[81] and that he needed to be involved in the appointment.[82]

On 8 March, the Israeli Defense Forces reiterated that Mojtaba Khamenei was considered a target for assassination.[82][51]

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and Georgian prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze congratulated Khamenei on his election.[83]

Notes

  1. ↑ Given that two seats were vacant at the time of the election, the required majority was slightly lower, at 57 members.
  2. ↑ Included multiple ballots.

    References

    1. ↑ "Iranian Council of Experts Elects Mojtaba Khamenei as New Supreme Leader". The Eastern Herald. 9 March 2026. Retrieved 9 March 2026.
    2. ↑ "عضو مجلس خبرگان ایران: کار برای انتخاب جانشین رهبر ایران به طور "کاملا مخفی" جریان دارد" [Member of Iran's Assembly of Experts: The process of choosing the successor to the leader of Iran is ongoing 'completely secretly.']. Afghanistan International (in Persian). 28 November 2023. Archived from the original on 29 August 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
    3. ↑ "ماجرای صحبت‌های آیت‌الله توکل درباره انتخاب قائم‌مقام رهبری چه بود؟" [What was the story of Ayatollah Tawakkel's talks about the selection of the deputy leadership?]. اعتمادآنلاین (in Persian). 29 November 2023. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
    4. ↑ "Who Will Lead Iran After President Raisi's Death?". TIME. 20 May 2024. Archived from the original on 20 May 2024. Retrieved 20 May 2024.
    5. ↑ Beaumont, Peter (20 May 2024). "Iran: who holds power now the president is dead?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 6 August 2024. Retrieved 20 May 2024. Aged 54, the supreme leader's second eldest son is sometimes mentioned as a potential successor to his father.
    6. ↑ Cunningham, Erin; Salim, Mustafa (21 March 2019), "Clues to the identity of Iran's next supreme leader in the back alleys of a holy city", The Washington Post, archived from the original on 8 November 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
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    8. ↑ Al Lawati, Abbas (1 March 2026). "Who might replace Iran's supreme leader? There's no clear successor". CNN. Retrieved 2 March 2026.
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